V. O. Omwenga, C. B. Singh, M. M. Manene and G. P. Pokhariyal.
University of Nairobi, School of Mathematics, P.o. Box 30197 Nairobi. Kenya
AbstractEnvironmental conflicts arise as a consequence of actions preventing or compelling some outcome at the resistance to the actions. More specifically, they are caused by anthropogenic activities that strain and damage the environment. Modelling environmental conflict is one of the fundamental ways providing means of solving them. In order to understand and model them, it is critical to identify potential and/or existing conflict causes (structural causes or proximate causes), as well as possible factors contributing to peace. In this paper, the dynamic time varying model for predicting environmental conflict is developed using Bayesian theory. The initial (state) conditions which play a significant role in the success of conflict resolution are estimated through a logistic probability model. An analogy on the application of the model in modelling of environmentally-induced conflict is given.
Key words: *Bayesian rule, environmental Conflict, dynamic state, initial conditions, Logistic probability model, Ultimatum game,
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