Journal of Kenya Meteorological Society

(JKMS)

Volume 4:3

Meteorological Factors and Measles Occurrence in Akure,Ondo State, Nigeria

Ademola Akinbobola and J.Bayo. Omotosho

Department of Meteorology, Federal University of Technology,

P.M.B 704 Akure. Nigeria

CORRESPONDING AUTHOR

Ademola Akinbobola Department of Meteorology,

Federal University of Technology,

P.M.B 704 Akure. Nigeria

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(Manuscript received 10 September 2010, in final form 01 November 2010)

Abstract

This study investigates the relationship between weather parameters, such as temperature and relative humidity, and the incidences of measles in Akure, the Ondo State capital, Nigeria. Monthly data of measles patients (in and out patients) between 1990 and 2003 were collected from Ondo state specialist hospital, Akure. Monthly relative humidity, rainfall and maximum temperatures for the same years were collected from Nigeria Meteorological Agency, Oshodi, Lagos. The study found that measles disease is more prevalent during the hot dry season and lowest during the wet season. Analysis also showed that these meteorological variables have significant correlation with the occurrence of measles. The disease is most prevalent when the temperatures is in range of between 32oC to 34oC and relative humidity of between 60% and 80%.Furthermore, at temperatures below 32oC and relative Humidity of less than 60%, there were very few measles patients. Finally, statistical analysis shows that simple multiple regressions particularly rainfall, combination, of temperature and rainfall, rainfall and relative humidity, and the combination of the three variables gave good estimates of measles patients. This will be of great use to health planners and government agencies in the efficient delivery of health care services. Keywords: Measles; weather elements; hot dry season; multiple regressions

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